Most founders choose the wrong kind of capital and exit strategy.
The framework for founders who want the right capital, a good valuation, and a smart exit.
Product-Market Fit tells you if the market wants what you're building.
Capital-Market Fit tells you what kind of capital and exit valuation that market can actually support. Raise at a VC valuation your buyer pool can't support, and you've narrowed your exit to an unlikely outcome.
Submarine
02Small markets with real moats. Bootstrapped and seed-strapped founders can exit well. VC often breaks the math on the way in.
Rocketship
01VC-fundable. Winner-take-most markets where capital compounds the moat. Raise big or lose to someone who did.
Campervan
04Small markets, thin moats. Bootstrap or seed-strap. Outside capital is the trap. Discipline is the advantage.
Bumper Cars
03Big markets, thin moats. Capital becomes the moat. Raise strategically or get outspent by the next entrant.
Your company doesn't have one value. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Different buyers use different math. A VC prices fund returns. Public markets price profitability. Every acquirer prices what you're worth to them specifically. Each number is internally consistent — and often wildly different from the others.
VC Valuation
Priced for fund math
What venture investors put in your term sheet. Revenue multiples at seed and Series A. These are not buyer prices. They're portfolio bets on outlier outcomes, disconnected from what any acquirer would actually pay.
Public Market Comps
Priced for profitability
What comparable public companies actually trade at. This can be confusing for founders and investors. Often times has no bearing for what your private company is worth to a buyer.
Buyer Valuation
Priced one buyer at a time
What a specific acquirer will write the check for. Every buyer brings different math: strategic value, urgency, build-vs-buy economics. Same company can have three buyers, pricing three different numbers.
Capital-Market Fit
A Founder's Guide to Raising Funding, Valuations, and Smart Exits.
A book for founders who want the exit, not just the headline round. Inside: the four quadrants that tell you what kind of capital fits, the three valuations that tell you what your company is actually worth, and the exit math that tells you when to leave and for how much. Case studies of the founders who got it wrong, alongside the ones who got it right.